Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Notodden vs Øygarden — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Notodden
Notodden
CANC
13:00
Øygarden
Øygarden
7/3/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Optime Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Notodden62%
×Draw21%
Øygarden17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notodden
2.03
Øygarden
0.95

Notodden creates 114% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 3 away

creates per match

Notodden
1.39
Øygarden
0.67

allows per match

Notodden
1.23
Øygarden
2.67

finishing

Notodden+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notodden ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Notodden or draw
83%
Notodden or Øygarden
79%
Draw or Øygarden
38%

Winning margin

Notodden wins by 2+
38%
Øygarden wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Notodden 1+ goals
87%
Notodden 2+ goals
60%
Notodden 3+ goals
33%
Øygarden 1+ goals
61%
Øygarden 2+ goals
25%
Øygarden 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Notodden (draw refunded)
79%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notodden at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Øygarden away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notodden attack 1.39 + Øygarden defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.03

Øygarden attack 0.67 + Notodden defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Notodden scores more
62%
level
21%
Øygarden scores more
17%

Notodden at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Notodden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Notodden face Øygarden (2. Division - Group 1)

2. Division - Group 1 returns with Notodden hosting Øygarden. Match starts July 3, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Notodden host Øygarden at Optime Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.