Notodden 0–2 Sogndal: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Notodden

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sogndal

S. Mandić 52' (pen)

P. Steiring 25'

4/29/2018

1. Division · Round 5Idrettsparken (Notodden)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Notodden37%

×Draw27%

Sogndal36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NotoddenExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.24

Notodden

1.25

Sogndal

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 114 away

0.92

creates per match

1.33

1.15

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Notodden

0.92

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Notodden

1.15

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notodden+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notodden ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Notodden or draw

64%

Notodden or Sogndal

73%

Draw or Sogndal

63%

Winning margin

Notodden wins by 2+

16%

Sogndal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Notodden 1+ goals

71%

Notodden 2+ goals

36%

Notodden 3+ goals

13%

Sogndal 1+ goals

71%

Sogndal 2+ goals

35%

Sogndal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Notodden (draw refunded)

50%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notodden at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notodden attack 0.92 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Notodden defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Notodden scores more

37%

level

27%

Sogndal scores more

36%

Notodden at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Notodden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

P. Steiring

52'

S. MandićPenalty

55'

Jeffrey Perez← Filipe Ferreira

68'

H. Gustavsen← A. Bakke

68'

J. Hove← S. Mandić

78'

O. Rindarøy← T. Totland

79'

K. Tøsse← A. Akinyemi

90'

L. Kjemhus← J. Soltvedt

Notodden

Sogndal

1

Dyngeland

2

Latifu

3

⚽

Steiring

16

Greenidge

31

Fredrikse

29

▼

Totland

8

Birkelund

7

Schulze

30

▼

Soltvedt

24

Jensen

10

⚽

▼

1

4

14

5

6

11

17

▼

Ferreira

26

▼

Akinyemi

10

Midtgarde

22

▼

Bakke

27

Hustad

Manager: K. Dokken

55'▲Jeffrey Perez←▼Filipe Ferreira

68'▲H. Gustavsen←▼A. Bakke

79'▲K. Tøsse←▼A. Akinyemi

Notodden substitutes

3Perez8Gustavsen21Tøsse12Vasby19Hoven20Mbedule18Robson

Manager: E. Bakke

68'▲J. Hove←▼S. Mandić

78'▲O. Rindarøy←▼T. Totland

90'▲L. Kjemhus←▼J. Soltvedt

Sogndal substitutes

28Hove14Rindarøy22Kjemhus9Flo12Haug17Fofana18Haugen