Notodden 1–0 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Notodden

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aalesund II

8/21/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Notodden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Notodden52%

×Draw25%

Aalesund II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NotoddenExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.04

Notodden

1.65

Aalesund II

1.04

Notodden creates 59% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 13 away

1.39

creates per match

0.85

1.23

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Notodden

1.39

Aalesund II

0.85

allows per match

Notodden

1.23

Aalesund II

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notodden+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notodden ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Notodden or draw

76%

Notodden or Aalesund II

75%

Draw or Aalesund II

48%

Winning margin

Notodden wins by 2+

28%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Notodden 1+ goals

81%

Notodden 2+ goals

49%

Notodden 3+ goals

23%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

65%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

28%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Notodden (draw refunded)

68%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notodden at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notodden attack 1.39 + Aalesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Aalesund II attack 0.85 + Notodden defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Notodden scores more

52%

level

25%

Aalesund II scores more

24%

Notodden at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Notodden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff