Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Noteć Czarnków vs Solec K. — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Noteć Czarnków
Noteć Czarnków
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Solec K.
Solec K.
9/15/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stadion Noteć Czarnków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Noteć Czarnków53%
×Draw21%
Solec K.25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noteć Czarnków
2.08
Solec K.
1.38

Noteć Czarnków creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Noteć Czarnków
2.04
Solec K.
1.18

allows per match

Noteć Czarnków
1.57
Solec K.
2.12

finishing

Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par
Solec K.+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noteć Czarnków ↓

Solec K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Noteć Czarnków or draw
75%
Noteć Czarnków or Solec K.
79%
Draw or Solec K.
47%

Winning margin

Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+
32%
Solec K. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals
87%
Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals
61%
Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals
34%
Solec K. 1+ goals
75%
Solec K. 2+ goals
40%
Solec K. 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)
68%
Solec K. (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noteć Czarnków at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Solec K. away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noteć Czarnków attack 2.04 + Solec K. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.08

Solec K. attack 1.18 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Noteć Czarnków scores more
53%
level
21%
Solec K. scores more
25%

Noteć Czarnków at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Noteć Czarnków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noteć Czarnków vs Solec K.

Noteć Czarnków beat Solec K. 4-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Noteć Czarnków in Czarnków.