Notch 4–0 Flora Tallinn: Result & Stats

Notch

FT

4 – 0

Flora Tallinn

7/15/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 24Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Notch53%

×Draw22%

Flora Tallinn25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NotchExpected goals in this matchFlora Tallinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.30

Notch

2.00

Flora Tallinn

1.30

Notch creates 54% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 12 away

1.76

creates per match

1.33

1.27

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Notch

1.76

Flora Tallinn

1.33

allows per match

Notch

1.27

Flora Tallinn

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notch+0.00on par

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notch ↓

Flora Tallinn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Notch or draw

75%

Notch or Flora Tallinn

78%

Draw or Flora Tallinn

47%

Winning margin

Notch wins by 2+

31%

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Notch 1+ goals

86%

Notch 2+ goals

59%

Notch 3+ goals

32%

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

73%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

37%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Notch (draw refunded)

68%

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notch attack 1.76 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Notch defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Notch scores more

53%

level

22%

Flora Tallinn scores more

25%

Notch at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Notch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff