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Nosta vs Spartak Tuymazy — Second League - Group 4 2020

Nosta
Nosta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
7/18/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nosta49%
×Draw22%
Spartak Tuymazy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nosta
1.92
Spartak Tuymazy
1.44

Nosta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nosta
1.12
Spartak Tuymazy
1.36

allows per match

Nosta
1.51
Spartak Tuymazy
2.71

finishing

Nosta+0.00on par
Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nosta ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nosta or draw
71%
Nosta or Spartak Tuymazy
78%
Draw or Spartak Tuymazy
51%

Winning margin

Nosta wins by 2+
27%
Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nosta 1+ goals
85%
Nosta 2+ goals
57%
Nosta 3+ goals
30%
Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
76%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
42%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nosta (draw refunded)
63%
Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nosta at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nosta attack 1.12 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.92

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Nosta defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nosta scores more
49%
level
22%
Spartak Tuymazy scores more
29%

Nosta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nosta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nosta vs Spartak Tuymazy

Spartak Tuymazy beat Nosta 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Novotroitsk.