Nosta 2–0 Lada Tolyatti: Result & Stats

Nosta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lada Tolyatti

9/21/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nosta58%

×Draw21%

Lada Tolyatti20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NostaExpected goals in this matchLada Tolyatti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.11

Nosta

2.03

Lada Tolyatti

1.11

Nosta creates 83% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 41 away

1.12

creates per match

0.71

1.51

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Nosta

1.12

Lada Tolyatti

0.71

allows per match

Nosta

1.51

Lada Tolyatti

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nosta+0.00on par

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nosta ↓

Lada Tolyatti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nosta or draw

80%

Nosta or Lada Tolyatti

79%

Draw or Lada Tolyatti

42%

Winning margin

Nosta wins by 2+

35%

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nosta 1+ goals

87%

Nosta 2+ goals

60%

Nosta 3+ goals

33%

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

67%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

30%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nosta (draw refunded)

74%

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nosta at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nosta attack 1.12 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.03

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Nosta defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nosta scores more

58%

level

21%

Lada Tolyatti scores more

20%

Nosta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nosta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff