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Nosta vs Akron II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Nosta
Nosta
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Akron II
Akron II
5/11/2025Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadium Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Nosta48%
×Draw24%
Akron II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nosta
1.67
Akron II
1.21

Nosta creates 38% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 42 away

creates per match

Nosta
1.12
Akron II
0.90

allows per match

Nosta
1.51
Akron II
2.21

finishing

Nosta+0.00on par
Akron II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nosta ↓

Akron II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nosta or draw
72%
Nosta or Akron II
76%
Draw or Akron II
52%

Winning margin

Nosta wins by 2+
25%
Akron II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nosta 1+ goals
81%
Nosta 2+ goals
50%
Nosta 3+ goals
23%
Akron II 1+ goals
70%
Akron II 2+ goals
34%
Akron II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nosta (draw refunded)
63%
Akron II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nosta at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

Akron II away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nosta attack 1.12 + Akron II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

Akron II attack 0.90 + Nosta defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nosta scores more
48%
level
24%
Akron II scores more
28%

Nosta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nosta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nosta vs Akron II

Nosta beat Akron II 3-1 in Second League - Group 4 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Metallurg in Novotroitsk.