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Nosaby vs Ariana — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Nosaby
Nosaby
FT
0 – 2
Ariana
Ariana
5/7/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 6Nya Vallbjörka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nosaby28%
×Draw24%
Ariana47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nosaby
1.23
Ariana
1.66

Ariana creates 35% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nosaby
1.54
Ariana
1.77

allows per match

Nosaby
1.55
Ariana
0.92

finishing

Nosaby+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nosaby ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nosaby or draw
53%
Nosaby or Ariana
76%
Draw or Ariana
72%

Winning margin

Nosaby wins by 2+
12%
Ariana wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Nosaby 1+ goals
71%
Nosaby 2+ goals
35%
Nosaby 3+ goals
13%
Ariana 1+ goals
81%
Ariana 2+ goals
49%
Ariana 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Nosaby (draw refunded)
37%
Ariana (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nosaby at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.55 · 92 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nosaby attack 1.54 + Ariana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ariana attack 1.77 + Nosaby defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nosaby scores more
28%
level
24%
Ariana scores more
47%

Ariana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Nosaby 0–2 Ariana

Ariana beat Nosaby 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Nya Vallbjörka in Kristianstad.