Norwich 1–2 Wolves: Result & Stats | Premier League

Norwich

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wolves

T. Cantwell 17'

R. Jiménez 81'

R. Saïss 60'

12/21/2019

Premier League · Round 18Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich33%

×Draw26%

Wolves41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.41

Norwich

1.24

Wolves

1.41

Wolves creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 122 away

0.98

creates per match

0.89

1.93

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Norwich

0.98

Wolves

0.89

allows per match

Norwich

1.93

Wolves

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

59%

Norwich or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

67%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Wolves wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

71%

Norwich 2+ goals

35%

Norwich 3+ goals

13%

Wolves 1+ goals

76%

Wolves 2+ goals

41%

Wolves 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

45%

Wolves (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + Wolves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.24

Wolves attack 0.89 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Norwich scores more

33%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

41%

Wolves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

9.1

Match Events

17'

33'

53'

57'

60'

R. Saïss↳ João Moutinho

70'

João Moutinho

77'

Pedro Neto← Diogo Jota

81'

R. Jiménez

86'

M. Vrančić← T. Trybull

86'

D. Srbeny← T. Cantwell

87'

O. Hernández← A. Tettey

90'

Grant Hanley

90'

Matt Doherty

90+4'

P. Cutrone← R. Jiménez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichWolves

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots14

3Corners11

7Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots14

7On Target4

5Off Target2

1Blocked8

8Inside Box12

5Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

455Total Passes440

364Accurate Passes357

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2