Norwich 2–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

W. Hoolahan 65'

R. Brady 54'

M. Noble 76'

D. Payet 74'

2/13/2016

Premier League · Round 26Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich31%

×Draw25%

West Ham44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.57

Norwich

1.29

West Ham

1.57

West Ham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 198 away

0.98

creates per match

1.21

1.93

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Norwich

0.98

West Ham

1.21

allows per match

Norwich

1.93

West Ham

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

56%

Norwich or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

69%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

West Ham wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

72%

Norwich 2+ goals

37%

Norwich 3+ goals

14%

West Ham 1+ goals

79%

West Ham 2+ goals

46%

West Ham 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

42%

West Ham (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

West Ham attack 1.21 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norwich scores more

31%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

44%

West Ham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Payet

West Ham · F

8.1

Match Events

23'

32'

33'

54'

62'

A. Carroll← E. Valencia

62'

V. Moses← A. Song

65'

W. Hoolahan

70'

E. Emenike← M. Antonio

74'

D. Payet

76'

Martin Olsson← S. Naismith

76'

M. Noble↳ D. Payet

84'

D. Mbokani← C. Jerome

85'

G. Dorrans← W. Hoolahan

90'

Jonathan Howson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichWest

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots11

3Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target6

7Off Target5

3Blocked0

6Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

376Total Passes401

242Accurate Passes293

64%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides8