Norwich 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

S. Byram 68'

D. O'Shea 9'

9/17/2022

Championship · Round 11Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Norwich41%

×Draw26%

West Brom33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.21

Norwich

1.38

West Brom

1.21

Norwich creates 14% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 55 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

1.28

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Norwich

1.53

West Brom

1.15

allows per match

Norwich

1.28

West Brom

1.23

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Norwich+0.21scores more

West Brom-0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

67%

Norwich or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

59%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

19%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

75%

Norwich 2+ goals

40%

Norwich 3+ goals

16%

West Brom 1+ goals

70%

West Brom 2+ goals

34%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

55%

West Brom (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.53 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

West Brom attack 1.15 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Norwich scores more

41%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

33%

Norwich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

S. Byram

Norwich · D

8.0

Match Events

9'

D. O'Shea↳ J. Swift

58'

Max Aarons

60'

O. Hernández← Gabriel Sara

68'

S. Byram↳ T. Pukki

78'

K. Dowell← M. Núñez

78'

K. Ahearne-Grant← B. Thomas-Asante

85'

Darnell Furlong

87'

A. Reach← G. Diangana

88'

T. Cantwell← A. Ramsey

90+2'

M. Phillips← J. Molumby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichWest

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots11

7Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target2

4Off Target2

4Blocked7

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

562Total Passes295

467Accurate Passes206

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1