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Norwich vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
8/11/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Norwich40%
×Draw26%
West Brom34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.38
West Brom
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 40 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.54
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Norwich
1.34
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Norwich+0.14scores more
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
66%
Norwich or West Brom
74%
Draw or West Brom
60%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
18%
West Brom wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
75%
Norwich 2+ goals
40%
Norwich 3+ goals
16%
West Brom 1+ goals
72%
West Brom 2+ goals
36%
West Brom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
53%
West Brom (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.34 · 34 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

West Brom attack 1.19 + Norwich defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Norwich scores more
40%
level
26%
West Brom scores more
34%

Norwich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Norwich 3–4 West Brom

West Brom beat Norwich 4-3 in Championship on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.