Norwich 2–3 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Preston

Gabriel Sara 76'

J. Sargent 2'

T. Parrott 80'

E. Riis 51', 25'

10/8/2022

Championship · Round 14Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Norwich47%

×Draw25%

Preston28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.15

Norwich

1.58

Preston

1.15

Norwich creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

1.53

creates per match

1.01

1.28

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Norwich

1.53

Preston

1.01

allows per match

Norwich

1.28

Preston

1.62

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Norwich+0.21scores more

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

72%

Norwich or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

53%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

24%

Preston wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

79%

Norwich 2+ goals

47%

Norwich 3+ goals

21%

Preston 1+ goals

68%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

63%

Preston (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.62 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.53 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Preston attack 1.01 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more

47%

level

25%

Preston scores more

28%

Norwich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Riis

Preston · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

J. Sargent

25'

E. Riis↳ R. Brady

30'

Sam Byram

44'

Robbie Brady

46'

Gabriel Sara← S. Byram

46'

T. Parrott← S. Maguire

51'

E. Riis↳ Álvaro Fernández

55'

59'

59'

64'

68'

B. Woodburn← R. Brady

72'

K. Dowell← M. Núñez

76'

Gabriel Sara↳ T. Pukki

80'

A. Hughes← G. Cunningham

80'

T. Parrott↳ B. Woodburn

81'

O. Hernández← L. Gibbs

82'

R. Ledson← T. Parrott

82'

D. Johnson← A. McCann

90+7'

Daniel Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichPreston

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots8

8Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots8

8On Target5

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

526Total Passes334

435Accurate Passes236

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2