Norwich 2–2 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Preston

P. Płacheta 85'

T. Pukki 31'

D. Fisher 42'

S. Sinclair 14' (pen)

9/19/2020

Championship · Round 2Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Norwich48%

×Draw25%

Preston27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

Norwich

1.58

Preston

1.13

Norwich creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

1.54

creates per match

0.99

1.26

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Norwich

1.54

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Norwich

1.26

Preston

1.62

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

73%

Norwich or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

52%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

25%

Preston wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

79%

Norwich 2+ goals

47%

Norwich 3+ goals

21%

Preston 1+ goals

68%

Preston 2+ goals

31%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

64%

Preston (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Preston attack 0.99 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Norwich scores more

48%

level

25%

Preston scores more

27%

Norwich at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Rafferty

Preston · D

7.6

Match Events

14'

S. SinclairPenalty

24'

P. Płacheta← K. Dowell

31'

T. Pukki↳ Xavi Quintillà

34'

Darnell Fisher

42'

D. Fisher

47'

Xavier Quintilla

63'

A. Idah← O. Hernández

79'

A. Hughes← B. Davies

79'

B. Potts← A. Browne

80'

J. Storey← J. Rafferty

82'

Scott Sinclair

85'

P. Płacheta

89'

J. Hugill← T. Cantwell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichPreston

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots16

4Corners9

6Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots16

5On Target6

8Off Target4

0Blocked6

8Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

447Total Passes365

341Accurate Passes247

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3