Norwich 0–3 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Newcastle

Bruno Guimarães 49'

Joelinton 41', 35'

4/23/2022

Premier League · Round 34Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Norwich31%

×Draw25%

Newcastle44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.58

Norwich

1.29

Newcastle

1.58

Newcastle creates 22% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 156 away

1.05

creates per match

1.01

2.15

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Norwich

1.05

Newcastle

1.01

allows per match

Norwich

2.15

Newcastle

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Newcastle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

56%

Norwich or Newcastle

75%

Draw or Newcastle

69%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Newcastle wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

72%

Norwich 2+ goals

37%

Norwich 3+ goals

14%

Newcastle 1+ goals

79%

Newcastle 2+ goals

47%

Newcastle 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

41%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.05 + Newcastle defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Newcastle attack 1.01 + Norwich defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norwich scores more

31%

level

25%

Newcastle scores more

44%

Newcastle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Joelinton

Newcastle · F

8.5

Match Events

35'

Joelinton↳ A. Saint-Maximin

37'

JoelintonGoal confirmed

39'

41'

49'

51'

58'

58'

M. Aarons← C. Zimmermann

67'

M. Almirón← Joelinton

74'

M. Ritchie← J. Murphy

75'

C. Tzolis← M. Rashica

87'

D. Gayle← Bruno Guimarães

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichNewcastle

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots13

2Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target7

3Off Target6

0Blocked0

4Inside Box10

1Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

417Total Passes506

315Accurate Passes420

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0