Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Norwich
Norwich
FT
6 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
8/21/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lotus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Norwich75%
×Draw16%
Milton Keynes Dons9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
2.42
Milton Keynes Dons
0.72

Norwich creates 236% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Norwich
2.67
Milton Keynes Dons
1.45

allows per match

Norwich
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
2.18

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
91%
Norwich or Milton Keynes Dons
84%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
25%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
52%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
91%
Norwich 2+ goals
69%
Norwich 3+ goals
43%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
51%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
16%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
89%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 2.67 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.42

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.45 + Norwich defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Norwich scores more
75%
level
16%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
9%

Norwich at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons

Norwich beat Milton Keynes Dons 6-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 21, 2020.

The match was played at Lotus Training Center in Colney, Norfolk.