Norwich 3–3 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Middlesbrough

S. Dieng 80' (OG)

Borja Sainz 71', 9'

F. Azaz 45+2'

T. Conway 40', 13'

10/27/2024

Championship · Round 12Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Norwich34%

×Draw25%

Middlesbrough42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.54

Norwich

1.36

Middlesbrough

1.54

Middlesbrough creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

1.65

1.43

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Norwich

1.50

Middlesbrough

1.65

allows per match

Norwich

1.43

Middlesbrough

1.23

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.07on par

Middlesbrough-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

58%

Norwich or Middlesbrough

75%

Draw or Middlesbrough

66%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

15%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

74%

Norwich 2+ goals

39%

Norwich 3+ goals

16%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

45%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

45%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.23 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.50 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Middlesbrough attack 1.65 + Norwich defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Norwich scores more

34%

level

25%

Middlesbrough scores more

42%

Middlesbrough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Marcondes

Norwich · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

Borja Sainz

13'

T. Conway↳ Neto Borges

23'

Aidan Morris

25'

George Edmundson

40'

T. Conway↳ A. Dijksteel

45+2'

F. Azaz↳ R. McGree

58'

Anis Ben Slimane

64'

O. Schwartau← A. Ben Slimane

64'

A. Forson← A. Crnac

69'

Tommy ConwayMissed penalty

70'

Riley McGree

71'

I. Jones← B. Doak

71'

E. Latte Lath← T. Conway

71'

Borja Sainz↳ C. Doyle

74'

Kellen Fisher

80'

S. DiengOwn goal

82'

J. Howson← R. McGree

82'

L. Ayling← A. Dijksteel

84'

J. Stacey← E. Marcondes

87'

Kenny McLean

90+1'

J. Sørensen← Borja Sainz

90+1'

K. Gordon← J. Sargent

90'

M. Hamilton← A. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichMiddlesbrough

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots14

1.10Expected Goals (xG)3.86

3Corners2

15Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots14

3On Target8

5Off Target2

1Blocked4

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

518Total Passes520

439Accurate Passes436

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

-2.05Goals Prevented-2.05

Discipline

15Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Norwich vs Middlesbrough

Norwich and Middlesbrough drew 3-3 in Championship on October 27, 2024.

Goals: Borja Sainz (9', 71'), T. Conway (13', 40'), F. Azaz (45+2'), S. Dieng (80' o.g.).

Norwich controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.

Norwich vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Norwich vs Middlesbrough