Norwich 0–1 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United

Cristiano Ronaldo 75' (pen)

12/11/2021

Premier League · Round 16Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Norwich25%

×Draw24%

Manchester United51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.76

Norwich

1.17

Manchester United

1.76

Manchester United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 182 away

1.05

creates per match

1.38

2.15

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Norwich

1.05

Manchester United

1.38

allows per match

Norwich

2.15

Manchester United

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Manchester United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

49%

Norwich or Manchester United

76%

Draw or Manchester United

75%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

10%

Manchester United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

69%

Norwich 2+ goals

33%

Norwich 3+ goals

11%

Manchester United 1+ goals

83%

Manchester United 2+ goals

52%

Manchester United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

33%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 182 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.05 + Manchester United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Manchester United attack 1.38 + Norwich defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Norwich scores more

25%

level

24%

Manchester United scores more

51%

Manchester United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

David de Gea

Manchester United · G

8.3

Match Events

21'

J. Sørensen← G. Hanley

67'

M. Greenwood← J. Sancho

70'

T. Cantwell← P. Płacheta

74'

E. Bailly← V. Lindelöf

75'

Cristiano RonaldoPenalty

76'

P. Lees Melou← L. Rupp

77'

Diogo Dalot

88'

D. van de Beek← Bruno Fernandes

90+4'

Pierre Lees Melou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichManchester

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots13

8Corners6

6Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots13

5On Target5

1Off Target4

5Blocked4

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

440Total Passes501

341Accurate Passes409

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1