Norwich 3–0 Ipswich: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ipswich

T. Pukki 80', 65'

O. Hernández 2'

2/10/2019

Championship · Round 31Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Norwich35%

×Draw25%

Ipswich40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.46

Norwich

1.34

Ipswich

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

1.43

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Norwich

1.50

Ipswich

1.50

allows per match

Norwich

1.43

Ipswich

1.18

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.07on par

Ipswich+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

60%

Norwich or Ipswich

75%

Draw or Ipswich

65%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

15%

Ipswich wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

74%

Norwich 2+ goals

39%

Norwich 3+ goals

15%

Ipswich 1+ goals

77%

Ipswich 2+ goals

43%

Ipswich 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

46%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.50 + Ipswich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ipswich attack 1.50 + Norwich defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Norwich scores more

35%

level

25%

Ipswich scores more

40%

Ipswich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Pukki

Norwich · F

8.4

Match Events

2'

O. Hernández↳ M. Vrančić

32'

Cole Skuse

43'

E. Harrison← F. Sears

45'

Jon Nolan

45+6'

A. Tettey← M. Vrančić

60'

65'

74'

76'

79'

80'

85'

T. Cantwell← M. Stiepermann

85'

88'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichIpswich

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots14

5Corners7

14Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target2

5Off Target6

3Blocked6

9Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

344Total Passes380

227Accurate Passes258

66%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls19

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0