Norwich 1–1 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crystal Palace

T. Cantwell 4'

C. Wickham 85'

1/1/2020

Premier League · Round 21Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich31%

×Draw25%

Crystal Palace44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.55

Norwich

1.27

Crystal Palace

1.55

Crystal Palace creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 207 away

0.98

creates per match

1.18

1.93

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Norwich

0.98

Crystal Palace

1.18

allows per match

Norwich

1.93

Crystal Palace

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

56%

Norwich or Crystal Palace

75%

Draw or Crystal Palace

69%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

72%

Norwich 2+ goals

36%

Norwich 3+ goals

14%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

79%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

46%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

42%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 207 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + Crystal Palace defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Crystal Palace attack 1.18 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norwich scores more

31%

level

25%

Crystal Palace scores more

44%

Crystal Palace at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

9.0

Match Events

4'

T. Cantwell↳ E. Buendía

42'

46'

60'

74'

76'

78'

O. Hernández← T. Cantwell

83'

Marco Stiepermann

83'

M. Stiepermann← T. Pukki

83'

B. Pierrick← M. Kelly

85'

C. Wickham↳ W. Zaha

89'

Alexander Tettey

90+2'

A. Idah← A. Tettey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichCrystal

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots12

2Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target3

8Off Target4

3Blocked5

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

362Total Passes521

292Accurate Passes422

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

5Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1