Norwich 0–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackpool

M. Rogers 15'

5/8/2023

Championship · Round 46Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Norwich51%

×Draw25%

Blackpool24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.02

Norwich

1.61

Blackpool

1.02

Norwich creates 58% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 52 away

1.71

creates per match

0.92

1.13

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Norwich

1.71

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Norwich

1.13

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

76%

Norwich or Blackpool

75%

Draw or Blackpool

49%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

27%

Blackpool wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

80%

Norwich 2+ goals

48%

Norwich 3+ goals

22%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

68%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 139 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.71 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Norwich defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Norwich scores more

51%

level

25%

Blackpool scores more

24%

Norwich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

D. Grimshaw

Blackpool · G

8.5

Match Events

15'

M. Rogers

46'

S. McCallum← D. Giannoulis

56'

A. Idah← M. Núñez

57'

J. Rowe← C. Tzolis

57'

J. Husband← C. Connolly

70'

S. Lavery← C. Hamilton

70'

R. Apter← S. Carey

73'

Onel Hernández

82'

A. Kamara← T. Pukki

82'

A. Lankshear← J. Thorniley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBlackpool

Overview

64%Possession36%

28Total Shots12

10Corners4

11Fouls7

Shots

28Total Shots12

5On Target6

10Off Target3

13Blocked3

13Inside Box8

15Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

521Total Passes291

451Accurate Passes213

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1