Norwich 0–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aston Villa

O. Watkins 87'

J. Ramsey 34'

12/14/2021

Premier League · Round 17Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich32%

×Draw25%

Aston Villa42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.48

Norwich

1.25

Aston Villa

1.48

Aston Villa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 144 away

0.98

creates per match

1.04

1.93

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Norwich

0.98

Aston Villa

1.04

allows per match

Norwich

1.93

Aston Villa

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

58%

Norwich or Aston Villa

75%

Draw or Aston Villa

68%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

71%

Norwich 2+ goals

36%

Norwich 3+ goals

13%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

77%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

43%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

43%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + Aston Villa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Aston Villa attack 1.04 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Norwich scores more

32%

level

25%

Aston Villa scores more

42%

Aston Villa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Watkins

Aston Villa · F

8.3

Match Events

34'

J. Ramsey↳ O. Watkins

45+1'

46'

49'

55'

60'

D. Ings← A. Young

61'

A. Idah← T. Cantwell

64'

Brandon Williams

75'

K. Dowell← P. Płacheta

83'

Carney Chukwuemeka← E. Buendía

87'

O. Watkins↳ Carney Chukwuemeka

88'

A. Tuanzebe← J. McGinn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichAston

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots17

7Corners10

12Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots17

3On Target6

1Off Target3

3Blocked8

6Inside Box12

1Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

451Total Passes447

373Accurate Passes371

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1