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Norwich City vs Needham Market W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Norwich City
Norwich City
FT
5 – 0
Needham Market W
Needham Market W
10/13/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingThe Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Norwich City73%
×Draw15%
Needham Market W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich City
2.75
Needham Market W
1.00

Norwich City creates 175% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Norwich City
2.17
Needham Market W
1.33

allows per match

Norwich City
0.67
Needham Market W
3.33

finishing

Norwich City+0.00on par
Needham Market W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich City ↓

Needham Market W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Norwich City or draw
89%
Norwich City or Needham Market W
85%
Draw or Needham Market W
27%

Winning margin

Norwich City wins by 2+
52%
Needham Market W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Norwich City 1+ goals
93%
Norwich City 2+ goals
75%
Norwich City 3+ goals
51%
Needham Market W 1+ goals
63%
Needham Market W 2+ goals
26%
Needham Market W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Norwich City (draw refunded)
87%
Needham Market W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich City at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Needham Market W away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich City attack 2.17 + Needham Market W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.75

Needham Market W attack 1.33 + Norwich City defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Norwich City scores more
73%
level
15%
Needham Market W scores more
11%

Norwich City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Norwich City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Norwich City 5–0 Needham Market W

Norwich City beat Needham Market W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at The Nest in Horsford, Norfolk.