Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Norwich City vs Hashtag United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Norwich City
Norwich City
FT
1 – 0
Hashtag United W
Hashtag United W
11/12/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Norwich City52%
×Draw21%
Hashtag United W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich City
2.19
Hashtag United W
1.53

Norwich City creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Norwich City
2.17
Hashtag United W
2.40

allows per match

Norwich City
0.67
Hashtag United W
2.20

finishing

Norwich City+0.00on par
Hashtag United W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich City ↓

Hashtag United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Norwich City or draw
73%
Norwich City or Hashtag United W
79%
Draw or Hashtag United W
48%

Winning margin

Norwich City wins by 2+
31%
Hashtag United W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Norwich City 1+ goals
89%
Norwich City 2+ goals
64%
Norwich City 3+ goals
37%
Hashtag United W 1+ goals
78%
Hashtag United W 2+ goals
45%
Hashtag United W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Norwich City (draw refunded)
66%
Hashtag United W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich City at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Hashtag United W away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich City attack 2.17 + Hashtag United W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hashtag United W attack 2.40 + Norwich City defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Norwich City scores more
52%
level
21%
Hashtag United W scores more
27%

Norwich City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Norwich City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norwich City vs Hashtag United W

Norwich City beat Hashtag United W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at The Nest in Horsford, Norfolk.