Norwich City 1–2 Boldmere St. Michaels W

Norwich City

1 – 2

Boldmere St. Michaels W

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Norwich City59%

×Draw20%

Boldmere St. Michaels W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norwich CityExpected goals in this matchBoldmere St. Michaels W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.27

Norwich City

2.23

Boldmere St. Michaels W

1.27

Norwich City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.17

creates per match

1.86

0.67

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Norwich City

2.17

Boldmere St. Michaels W

1.86

allows per match

Norwich City

0.67

Boldmere St. Michaels W

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich City+0.00on par

Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich City ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Norwich City or draw

79%

Norwich City or Boldmere St. Michaels W

80%

Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels W

41%

Winning margin

Norwich City wins by 2+

37%

Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+

Team goals

Norwich City 1+ goals

89%

Norwich City 2+ goals

65%

Norwich City 3+ goals

38%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals

72%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals

36%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Norwich City (draw refunded)

74%

Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Norwich City at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Norwich City attack 2.17 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.23

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 1.86 + Norwich City defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Norwich City scores more

59%

level

20%

Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more

21%

Norwich City at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Norwich City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff