Norway 3–0 Slovenia: Result & Stats

Norway

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slovenia

E. Haaland 62', 7'

A. Sørloth 52'

10/10/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 3Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Norway55%

×Draw27%

Slovenia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwayExpected goals in this matchSlovenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.71

Norway

1.46

Slovenia

0.71

Norway creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

0.85

0.58

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Norway

1.92

Slovenia

0.85

allows per match

Norway

0.58

Slovenia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway+0.00on par

Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Slovenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Norway or draw

82%

Norway or Slovenia

73%

Draw or Slovenia

45%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+

28%

Slovenia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals

77%

Norway 2+ goals

43%

Norway 3+ goals

18%

Slovenia 1+ goals

51%

Slovenia 2+ goals

16%

Slovenia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)

75%

Slovenia (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 1.92 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Norway defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norway scores more

55%

level

27%

Slovenia scores more

18%

Norway at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Haaland

Norway · F

9.6

Match Events

7'

E. Haaland

46'

M. Pedersen← L. Østigård

52'

A. Sørloth

57'

Ž. Vipotnik← J. Balkovec

57'

Ž. Celar← A. Šporar

62'

E. Haaland↳ A. Sørloth

63'

Petar Stojanović

73'

J. Kurtić← D. Petrovič

75'

P. Berg← M. Thorsby

76'

A. Dønnum← A. Nusa

76'

J. Strand Larsen← A. Sørloth

79'

J. Iličić← A. Gnezda Čerin

79'

B. Kramer← B. Šeško

82'

H. Vetlesen← J. Ryerson

88'

Patrick Berg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwaySlovenia

Overview

53%Possession47%

24Total Shots11

4Corners4

5Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots11

14On Target2

5Off Target7

5Blocked2

16Inside Box8

8Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

487Total Passes415

410Accurate Passes326

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

5Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1