Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Norway vs Slovenia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Norway
Norway
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slovenia
Slovenia
Ole Selnæs 45'
10/13/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 3Ullevaal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Norway55%
×Draw27%
Slovenia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
1.46
Slovenia
0.71

Norway creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Norway
1.92
Slovenia
0.85

allows per match

Norway
0.58
Slovenia
1.00

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Norway or draw
82%
Norway or Slovenia
73%
Draw or Slovenia
45%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
28%
Slovenia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
77%
Norway 2+ goals
43%
Norway 3+ goals
18%
Slovenia 1+ goals
51%
Slovenia 2+ goals
16%
Slovenia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
75%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 1.92 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Norway defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norway scores more
55%
level
27%
Slovenia scores more
18%

Norway at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Nemanja Mitrović← Luka Krajnc
44'
Tarik Elyounoussi
45'
Ole Selnæs
46'
Jaka Bijol← Leo Štulac
61'
Josip Iličić← Domen Črnigoj
75'
Bjorn Johnsen← Tarik Elyounoussi
80'
Iver Fossum← Stefan Johansen
84'
Jaka Bijol
90'
Martin Linnes← Mohamed Elyounoussi

Possession

62%Norway

Shots

11Norway

Statistics

NorwaySlovenia
Overview
62%Possession38%
11Total Shots3
6Corners3
12Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots3
5On Target0
6Off Target3
Passing
62%Possession38%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

UEFA Nations League: Norway 1–0 Slovenia

Norway beat Slovenia 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 13, 2018.

Goals: Ole Selnæs (45').

Norway controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 3.

The match was played at Ullevaal in Oslo.