Norway 1–1 Slovakia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Norway

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slovakia

A. Sørloth 18'

O. Duda 87'

3/26/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Norway67%

×Draw20%

Slovakia13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwayExpected goals in this matchSlovakia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.72

Norway

1.98

Slovakia

0.72

Norway creates 175% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

2.07

creates per match

0.80

0.64

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Norway

2.07

Slovakia

0.80

allows per match

Norway

0.64

Slovakia

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway+0.00on par

Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Slovakia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norway or draw

87%

Norway or Slovakia

80%

Draw or Slovakia

33%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+

41%

Slovakia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals

86%

Norway 2+ goals

59%

Norway 3+ goals

31%

Slovakia 1+ goals

51%

Slovakia 2+ goals

16%

Slovakia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)

84%

Slovakia (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Slovakia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.07 + Slovakia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.98

Slovakia attack 0.80 + Norway defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Norway scores more

67%

level

20%

Slovakia scores more

13%

Norway at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Obert

Slovakia · D

8.2

Match Events

18'

A. Sørloth

46'

O. Duda← L. Bénes

46'

D. Hancko← V. De Marco

56'

S. Lobotka← P. Hrošovský

56'

Ľ. Tupta← L. Haraslín

62'

J. Strand Larsen← E. Haaland

62'

A. Nusa← O. Bobb

62'

D. Møller Wolfe← F. Bjørkan

62'

K. Thorstvedt← M. Elyounoussi

65'

79'

83'

87'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwaySlovakia

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots11

10Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target2

7Off Target8

6Blocked1

18Inside Box7

1Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

538Total Passes397

468Accurate Passes336

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1