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Norway vs Serbia — Euro Championship 2024

Norway
Norway
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Serbia
Serbiaadvanced
M. Normann 88'
S. Milinkovic-Savic 102', 82'
10/8/2020Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Play-offs Path C - Semi-FinalsUllevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Norway55%
×Draw22%
Serbia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
1.95
Serbia
1.19

Norway creates 64% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Norway
2.40
Serbia
1.17

allows per match

Norway
1.20
Serbia
1.50

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Norway or draw
77%
Norway or Serbia
78%
Draw or Serbia
45%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
32%
Serbia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
86%
Norway 2+ goals
58%
Norway 3+ goals
31%
Serbia 1+ goals
70%
Serbia 2+ goals
33%
Serbia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
70%
Serbia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.40 + Serbia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Serbia attack 1.17 + Norway defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norway scores more
55%
level
22%
Serbia scores more
23%

Norway at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Sergej Milinković-SavićSerbiaSerbia · M
8.9

Match Events

46'
M. Henriksen← M. Normann
47'
M. Normann
60'
M. Ristic
66'
S. Johansen← J. King
80'
N. Maksimovic← L. Milivojevic
80'
F. Djuricic← S. Milinkovic-Savic
82'
S. Milinkovic-Savic↳ A. Mitrovic
88'
M. Normann
90+4'
L. Milivojevic
91'
T. Reginiussen← S. Strandberg
102'
S. Milinkovic-Savic↳ D. Tadic
106'
H. Aleesami← M. Linnes
106'
D. Lazovic← M. Gacinovic
111'
M. Odegaard← M. Elyounoussi
116'
O. Elabdellaoui← M. Thorsby
119'
D. Tadic
119'
D. Tadic← S. Lukic

Possession

50%Norway

Shots

9Norway

Pass accuracy

50%Norway

Statistics

NorwaySerbia
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots18
10Corners4
12Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots18
3On Target9
3Off Target8
3Blocked1
3Inside Box15
6Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
553Total Passes542
439Accurate Passes431
79%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Norway 1 – 1 Serbia

Norway and Serbia drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on October 8, 2020.

Goals: S. Milinkovic-Savic (82', 102'), M. Normann (88').

Norway controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo.