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Norway vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Norway
Norway
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
Stuart Dallas 67' (OG)
10/14/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 4Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Norway64%
×Draw23%
Northern Ireland13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
1.69
Northern Ireland
0.61

Norway creates 177% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Norway
1.92
Northern Ireland
0.64

allows per match

Norway
0.58
Northern Ireland
1.45

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Norway or draw
87%
Norway or Northern Ireland
77%
Draw or Northern Ireland
36%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
36%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
82%
Norway 2+ goals
50%
Norway 3+ goals
24%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
46%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
13%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
83%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 1.92 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Norway defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Norway scores more
64%
level
23%
Northern Ireland scores more
13%

Norway at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
André HansenNorwayNorway · G
7.9

Match Events

46'
Connor McLaughlin← Jonny Evans
60'
Stuart Dallas← Michael Smith
61'
Paddy McNair← George Saville
62'
Joshua King
65'
Fredrik Midtsjø← Mathias Normann
65'
Alexander Sørloth← Joshua King
67'
Stuart DallasOwn goal
75'
Mohamed Elyounoussi
75'
Gavin Whyte← Conor Washington
78'
Martin Linnes← Martin Ødegaard
85'
Steven Davis← Jordan Thompson
87'
Markus Henriksen← Erling Braut Haaland

Possession

61%Norway

Shots

11Norway

Pass accuracy

52%Norway

Statistics

NorwayNorthern
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots6
9Corners3
15Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots6
5On Target4
4Off Target2
2Blocked0
9Inside Box3
2Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
596Total Passes385
520Accurate Passes307
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

UEFA Nations League: Norway 1–0 Northern Ireland

Norway beat Northern Ireland 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 14, 2020.

Goals: Stuart Dallas (67' o.g.).

Norway controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo.