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Norway vs Malta — Euro Championship 2024

Norway
Norway
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Malta
Malta
J. King 45+1' (pen)
S. Berge 33'
9/5/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Norway80%
×Draw14%
Malta6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
2.60
Malta
0.60

Norway creates 333% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Norway
2.40
Malta
0.00

allows per match

Norway
1.20
Malta
2.80

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Malta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Malta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Norway or draw
94%
Norway or Malta
86%
Draw or Malta
20%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
58%
Malta wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
92%
Norway 2+ goals
73%
Norway 3+ goals
47%
Malta 1+ goals
45%
Malta 2+ goals
12%
Malta 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
93%
Malta (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Malta away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.40 + Malta defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.60

Malta attack 0.00 + Norway defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Norway scores more
80%
level
14%
Malta scores more
6%

Norway at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
E. HovlandNorwayNorway · D
8.0

Match Events

20'
F. Apap← Z. Muscat
32'
Joshua King
33'
S. Berge↳ E. Hovland
45'
Kyrian Nwoko
45+1'
J. KingPenalty
58'
B. Johnsen← J. King
64'
J. Farrugia← P. Fenech
66'
T. Elyounoussi← E. Håland
76'
M. Normann← S. Johansen
77'
A. Effiong← J. Grech

Possession

68%Norway

Shots

16Norway

Pass accuracy

55%Norway

Statistics

NorwayMalta
Overview
68%Possession32%
16Total Shots3
6Corners2
11Fouls6
Shots
16Total Shots3
9On Target0
5Off Target2
2Blocked1
9Inside Box2
7Outside Box1
Passing
68%Possession32%
708Total Passes326
625Accurate Passes238
88%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Euro Championship: Norway 2–0 Malta

Norway beat Malta 2-0 in Euro Championship on September 5, 2019.

Goals: S. Berge (33'), J. King (45+1' pen).

Norway controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo.