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Norway vs Luxembourg — Friendlies 2026

Norway
Norway
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
E. Haaland 90+2'
6/2/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Norway67%
×Draw22%
Luxembourg11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
1.81
Luxembourg
0.59

Norway creates 207% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Norway
2.07
Luxembourg
0.55

allows per match

Norway
0.64
Luxembourg
1.55

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Norway or draw
89%
Norway or Luxembourg
78%
Draw or Luxembourg
33%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
40%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
84%
Norway 2+ goals
54%
Norway 3+ goals
27%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
45%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
12%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
85%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.07 + Luxembourg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Luxembourg attack 0.55 + Norway defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Norway scores more
67%
level
22%
Luxembourg scores more
11%

Norway at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Laurent Jans
59'
Morten Thorsby
60'
V. Selimovic← M. Martins
60'
F. Bohnert← O. Thill
64'
A. Dønnum← J. Hauge
65'
F. Midtsjø← M. Thorsby
65'
J. Ryerson← J. Svensson
69'
S. Thill← C. Martins
72'
A. Hanche-Olsen← K. Ajer
81'
E. Veiga← M. Pinto
82'
D. Alves da Mota← M. Deville
85'
K. Thorstvedt← A. Sørloth
88'
Vahid Selimović
90+2'
E. Haaland

Possession

56%Norway

Shots

8Norway

Statistics

NorwayLuxembourg
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots2
9Corners3
12Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots2
3On Target0
5Off Target2
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Friendlies: Norway 1–0 Luxembourg

Norway beat Luxembourg 1-0 in Friendlies on June 2, 2021.

Goals: E. Haaland (90+2').

Norway controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 2.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.