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Norway vs Kosovo — Friendlies 2026

Norway
Norway
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kosovo
Kosovo
E. Haaland 75', 70', 15'
6/5/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Norway58%
×Draw24%
Kosovo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
1.70
Kosovo
0.82

Norway creates 107% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Norway
2.07
Kosovo
1.00

allows per match

Norway
0.64
Kosovo
1.33

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Kosovo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Kosovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Norway or draw
82%
Norway or Kosovo
76%
Draw or Kosovo
42%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
32%
Kosovo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
82%
Norway 2+ goals
51%
Norway 3+ goals
24%
Kosovo 1+ goals
56%
Kosovo 2+ goals
20%
Kosovo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
76%
Kosovo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Kosovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.07 + Kosovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kosovo attack 1.00 + Norway defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Norway scores more
58%
level
24%
Kosovo scores more
18%

Norway at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
E. HaalandNorwayNorway · F
9.3

Match Events

15'
E. Haaland↳ D. Møller Wolfe
35'
Albion Rrahmani← V. Berisha
40'
B. Berisha← E. Rashani
46'
M. Pedersen← A. Hanche-Olsen
46'
A. Nusa← J. Strand Larsen
46'
M. Thorsby← K. Thorstvedt
46'
L. Dellova← B. Idrizi
55'
David Möller Wolfe
62'
A. Dønnum← O. Bobb
70'
E. Haaland↳ A. Nusa
75'
J. Gundersen← D. Møller Wolfe
75'
E. Haaland↳ A. Dønnum
78'
I. Krasniqi← F. Aliti
78'
A. Smakaj← L. Emërllahu
83'
Kristoffer Ajer
90'
A. Schjelderup← E. Haaland

Possession

51%Norway

Shots

13Norway

Pass accuracy

50%Norway

Statistics

NorwayKosovo
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots10
4Corners2
11Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots10
6On Target1
4Off Target5
3Blocked4
11Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
488Total Passes450
423Accurate Passes388
87%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Norway 3 – 0 Kosovo

Norway beat Kosovo 3-0 in Friendlies on June 5, 2024.

Goals: E. Haaland (15', 70', 75').

Norway controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo.