Norway 5–0 Kazakhstan: Result & Stats

Norway

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kazakhstan

A. Nusa 76'

E. Haaland 71', 37', 23'

A. Sørloth 41'

11/17/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 6Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Norway71%

×Draw19%

Kazakhstan10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwayExpected goals in this matchKazakhstan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.64

Norway

2.11

Kazakhstan

0.64

Norway creates 230% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.92

creates per match

0.70

0.58

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Norway

1.92

Kazakhstan

0.70

allows per match

Norway

0.58

Kazakhstan

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway+0.00on par

Kazakhstan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Kazakhstan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norway or draw

90%

Norway or Kazakhstan

81%

Draw or Kazakhstan

29%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+

46%

Kazakhstan wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals

88%

Norway 2+ goals

62%

Norway 3+ goals

35%

Kazakhstan 1+ goals

47%

Kazakhstan 2+ goals

14%

Kazakhstan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)

88%

Kazakhstan (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Kazakhstan away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 1.92 + Kazakhstan defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

Kazakhstan attack 0.70 + Norway defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Norway scores more

71%

level

19%

Kazakhstan scores more

10%

Norway at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Haaland

Norway · F

10.0

Match Events

23'

37'

41'

43'

46'

A. Zhaksylykov← A. Aymbetov

46'

B. Islamkhan← E. Tapalov

51'

Z. Payruz← I. Chesnokov

63'

P. Berg← K. Thorstvedt

63'

T. Heggem← M. Pedersen

63'

J. Strand Larsen← A. Sørloth

68'

E. Astanov← M. Samorodov

71'

E. Haaland↳ S. Berge

73'

S. Langås← S. Gregersen

76'

A. Nusa↳ J. Strand Larsen

86'

C. Rösler← E. Haaland

88'

Aybar Zhaksylykov

90'

A. Baltabekov← A. Tagybergen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwayKazakhstan

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots8

11Corners3

8Fouls16

Shots

24Total Shots8

9On Target0

10Off Target2

5Blocked6

16Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

607Total Passes368

546Accurate Passes306

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3