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Norway vs Israel — Friendlies 2026

Norway
Norway
CANC
17:00
Israel
Israel
11/11/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Norway61%
×Draw22%
Israel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
1.88
Israel
0.87

Norway creates 116% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Norway
2.07
Israel
1.10

allows per match

Norway
0.64
Israel
1.70

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Israel+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Israel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Norway or draw
83%
Norway or Israel
78%
Draw or Israel
39%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
36%
Israel wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
85%
Norway 2+ goals
56%
Norway 3+ goals
29%
Israel 1+ goals
58%
Israel 2+ goals
22%
Israel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
78%
Israel (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Israel away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.07 + Israel defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Israel attack 1.10 + Norway defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Norway scores more
61%
level
22%
Israel scores more
17%

Norway at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Norway host Israel

November 11, 2020: Norway take on Israel in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Norway host Israel at Ullevaal Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.