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Norway vs Czechia — Friendlies 2026

Norway
Norway
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Czechia
Czechia
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Norway66%
×Draw21%
Czechia14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway
1.98
Czechia
0.77

Norway creates 157% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Norway
2.07
Czechia
0.90

allows per match

Norway
0.64
Czechia
1.90

finishing

Norway+0.00on par
Czechia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Czechia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Norway or draw
86%
Norway or Czechia
79%
Draw or Czechia
34%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+
40%
Czechia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals
86%
Norway 2+ goals
59%
Norway 3+ goals
31%
Czechia 1+ goals
54%
Czechia 2+ goals
18%
Czechia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)
83%
Czechia (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Czechia away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.07 + Czechia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.98

Czechia attack 0.90 + Norway defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Norway scores more
66%
level
21%
Czechia scores more
14%

Norway at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norway vs Czechia

Czechia beat Norway 2-1 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo.