Norway 1–0 Bulgaria: Result & Stats

Norway

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bulgaria

Mohamed Elyounoussi 31'

10/16/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 4Ullevaal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Norway60%

×Draw25%

Bulgaria14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwayExpected goals in this matchBulgaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.61

Norway

1.55

Bulgaria

0.61

Norway creates 154% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.92

creates per match

0.64

0.58

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Norway

1.92

Bulgaria

0.64

allows per match

Norway

0.58

Bulgaria

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway+0.00on par

Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Bulgaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Norway or draw

86%

Norway or Bulgaria

75%

Draw or Bulgaria

40%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+

32%

Bulgaria wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals

79%

Norway 2+ goals

46%

Norway 3+ goals

20%

Bulgaria 1+ goals

46%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

13%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)

81%

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 1.92 + Bulgaria defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bulgaria attack 0.64 + Norway defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Norway scores more

60%

level

25%

Bulgaria scores more

14%

Norway at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Ivan Bandalovski

21'

Ole Selnæs

31'

Mohamed Elyounoussi↳ Omar Elabdellaoui

35'

Petar Zanev

45'

Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski

49'

Radoslav Vasilev← Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski

58'

Kristiyan Malinov← Simeon Slavchev

72'

Nikolay Bodurov

78'

Iver Fossum← Stefan Johansen

78'

Bozhidar Kraev← Georgi Kostadinov

83'

Todor Nedelev

85'

Kristiyan Malinov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

NorwayBulgaria

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots4

6Corners1

17Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots4

1On Target2

6Off Target2

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls16

1Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2