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Norway U23 W vs Germany U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Norway U23 W
Norway U23 W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Germany U23 W
Germany U23 W
3/2/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Norway U23 W41%
×Draw24%
Germany U23 W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U23 W
1.63
Germany U23 W
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Norway U23 W
1.25
Germany U23 W
2.25

allows per match

Norway U23 W
0.75
Germany U23 W
2.00

finishing

Norway U23 W+0.00on par
Germany U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U23 W ↓

Germany U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Norway U23 W or draw
65%
Norway U23 W or Germany U23 W
76%
Draw or Germany U23 W
59%

Winning margin

Norway U23 W wins by 2+
21%
Germany U23 W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Norway U23 W 1+ goals
80%
Norway U23 W 2+ goals
48%
Norway U23 W 3+ goals
22%
Germany U23 W 1+ goals
78%
Germany U23 W 2+ goals
44%
Germany U23 W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Norway U23 W (draw refunded)
54%
Germany U23 W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U23 W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Germany U23 W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U23 W attack 1.25 + Germany U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Germany U23 W attack 2.25 + Norway U23 W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Norway U23 W scores more
41%
level
24%
Germany U23 W scores more
35%

Norway U23 W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Norway U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Norway U23 W 3–1 Germany U23 W

Norway U23 W beat Germany U23 W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on March 2, 2026.