Norway U21 vs Finland U21 — League #850 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Norway U2174%
Finland U2110%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Norway U21 creates 199% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Norway U21 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Norway U21 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
Finland U21 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Norway U21 attack 3.25 + Finland U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.63
Finland U21 attack 0.75 + Norway U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 74%?"
Norway U21 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 74% does not mean "Norway U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Norway U21 substitutes
Head to Head
Poland U21
Spain U21
Switzerland U21
Croatia U21
Republic of Ireland U21
Scotland U21
Belgium U21
Northern Ireland U21
Germany U21
England U21Norway U21
Portugal U21
Kosovo U21
Czech Republic U21
Greece U21
Bulgaria U21
Montenegro U21
Bosnia-Herzegovina U21
Turkey U21
Slovenia U21
Latvia U21
France U21
Netherlands U21
Luxembourg U21
Azerbaijan U21Finland U21
Slovakia U21
Austria U21
Italy U21
Andorra U21
Georgia U21
Romania U21
Sweden U21
Wales U21
Belarus U21
Iceland U21
Moldova U21
Hungary U21
Denmark U21
Israel U21
Estonia U21
Ukraine U21
Faroe Islands U21
Kazakhstan U21
Lithuania U21
North Macedonia U21
Malta U21
Armenia U21
San Marino U21
Cyprus U21
Gibraltar U21If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Norway U21 host Finland U21 on Friday, 12 November 2021 at 17:00. The match is part of the League #850 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Norway U21 vs Finland U21
Norway U21 beat Finland U21 3-1 in League #850 on November 12, 2021.
Goals: J. Larsen (55', 67' pen), A. Suhonen (74'), J. Hove (89').
The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.