Norway U19 5–0 Wales U19: Result & Stats

Norway U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wales U19

K. Arnstad 79'

B. Fiabema 63'

O. Holm 52'

S. Jatta 50'

O. Bobb 44'

10/9/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Release Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Norway U1959%

×Draw19%

Wales U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchWales U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.37

Norway U19

2.38

Wales U19

1.37

Norway U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

3.26

creates per match

2.00

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Norway U19

3.26

Wales U19

2.00

allows per match

Norway U19

0.74

Wales U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

Wales U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Wales U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

79%

Norway U19 or Wales U19

81%

Draw or Wales U19

41%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

38%

Wales U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

91%

Norway U19 2+ goals

68%

Norway U19 3+ goals

42%

Wales U19 1+ goals

75%

Wales U19 2+ goals

40%

Wales U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Wales U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Wales U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 3.26 + Wales U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Wales U19 attack 2.00 + Norway U19 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Norway U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Wales U19 scores more

21%

Norway U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

50'

52'

56'

57'

63'

72'

J. Lannin-Sweet← C. Savage

72'

R. Viggars← L. Harris

76'

I. Hansen-Aarøen← O. Holm

76'

J. Eng← B. Fiabema

76'

M. Emilsen← C. Zafeiris

79'

K. Arnstad

81'

A. Frobenius← M. Williamsen

81'

N. Hopland← L. Hjelde

85'

K. Williams← C. Wood

Norway

Wales

16

▼

1

5

4

14

6

8

▼

Savage

20

Hughes

13

▼

Wood

18

▼

Harris

9

▼

Farrell

1

Solberg

3

▼

Williamse

4

▼

Hjelde

15

⚽

▼

Holm

10

⚽

Bobb

17

Gulliksen

18

▼

Zafeiris

8

⚽

Arnstad

7

Schjelder

9

⚽

▼

Fiabema

19

⚽

Jatta

Manager: P. Johansen

76'▲I. Hansen-Aarøen←▼O. Holm

76'▲J. Eng←▼B. Fiabema

76'▲M. Emilsen←▼C. Zafeiris

81'▲A. Frobenius←▼M. Williamsen

81'▲N. Hopland←▼L. Hjelde

Norway U19 substitutes

20Hansen-Aarøen21Eng16Emilsen14Frobenius6Hopland12Øy5Lövik11Auklend2Seferi

Manager: R. Edwards

56'▲C. Popov←▼R. Howley

57'▲H. Jones←▼J. Farrell

72'▲J. Lannin-Sweet←▼C. Savage

72'▲R. Viggars←▼L. Harris

85'▲K. Williams←▼C. Wood

Wales U19 substitutes

11Popov2Jones7Lannin-Sweet19Viggars17Williams10Raymond15Williams12Ridd3Davies

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Norway U19 5–0 Wales U19

Norway U19 beat Wales U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2021.

Goals: O. Bobb (44'), S. Jatta (50'), O. Holm (52'), B. Fiabema (63'), K. Arnstad (79').

The match was played at Release Arena in Sandefjord.

Norway U19 vs Wales U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Norway U19 5–0 Wales U19