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Norway U19 vs Slovenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Norway U19
Norway U19
CANC
10:00
Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19
9/5/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 3Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Norway U1940%
×Draw23%
Slovenia U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U19
1.67
Slovenia U19
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Norway U19
1.93
Slovenia U19
1.60

allows per match

Norway U19
1.57
Slovenia U19
1.40

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par
Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw
64%
Norway U19 or Slovenia U19
77%
Draw or Slovenia U19
60%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+
20%
Slovenia U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals
81%
Norway U19 2+ goals
50%
Norway U19 3+ goals
23%
Slovenia U19 1+ goals
79%
Slovenia U19 2+ goals
47%
Slovenia U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 1.93 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slovenia U19 attack 1.60 + Norway U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Norway U19 scores more
40%
level
23%
Slovenia U19 scores more
36%

Norway U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norway U19 face Slovenia U19 (UEFA U19 Championship)

UEFA U19 Championship returns with Norway U19 hosting Slovenia U19. Match starts September 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Norway U19 host Slovenia U19 at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.