Norway U19 1–0 Romania U18: Result & Stats

Norway U19

1 – 0

Romania U18

3/22/2024

Friendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Norway U1947%

×Draw24%

Romania U1829%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchRomania U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.27

Norway U19

1.67

Romania U18

1.27

Norway U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

0.88

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Norway U19

2.33

Romania U18

0.88

allows per match

Norway U19

1.67

Romania U18

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

Romania U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Romania U18 →

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

71%

Norway U19 or Romania U18

76%

Draw or Romania U18

53%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

25%

Romania U18 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

81%

Norway U19 2+ goals

50%

Norway U19 3+ goals

23%

Romania U18 1+ goals

72%

Romania U18 2+ goals

36%

Romania U18 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Romania U18 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Romania U18 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 2.33 + Romania U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Romania U18 attack 0.88 + Norway U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norway U19 scores more

47%

level

24%

Romania U18 scores more

29%

Norway U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff