Norway U19 6–2 North Macedonia U19: Result & Stats

Norway U19

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

North Macedonia U19

D. Gjengaar 70'

J. Eng 57'

I. Hansen-Aarøen 40', 16'

A. Nusa 32', 9'

D. Trajkov 19'

S. Zenku 6'

11/20/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Norway U1977%

×Draw14%

North Macedonia U199%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

0.83

Norway U19

2.73

North Macedonia U19

0.83

Norway U19 creates 229% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

3.26

creates per match

0.93

0.74

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Norway U19

3.26

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Norway U19

0.74

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

91%

Norway U19 or North Macedonia U19

86%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

23%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

56%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

93%

Norway U19 2+ goals

75%

Norway U19 3+ goals

50%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

56%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

20%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

90%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 3.26 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.73

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Norway U19 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Norway U19 scores more

77%

level

14%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

9%

Norway U19 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

V. Egeli

6'

S. Zenku

9'

N. Jensen Wassberg← E. Flataker

9'

14'

16'

19'

32'

40'

46'

A. Osmani← S. Mladenovski

46'

D. Elezi← A. Chilafi

46'

N. Pavleski← A. Murati

47'

J. Eng

57'

J. Eng

61'

E. Blikstad← A. Nusa

61'

I. Hjorteseth← A. Roaldsøy

61'

O. Sivertsen← J. Eng

61'

Z. Nazifi← M. Gjorgievski

67'

Mateo Sofijanoski← S. Zenku

70'

D. Gjengaar

72'

V. Engh← S. Strand-Kolbjørnsen

Norway

North

1

Tasev

3

Chajani

5

Buqi

18

⚽

▼

Zenku

19

▼

Murati

6

Angelov

15

▼

Chilafi

11

⚽

Trajkov

14

Janevski

17

▼

Gjorgievs

4

▼

Mladenovs

12

▼

Strand-Ko

2

⚽

Gjengaar

4

Hopland

10

⚽2

Hansen-Aa

6

▼

3

8

14

9

▼

Flataker

18

⚽2

▼

Nusa

19

⚽

▼

Eng

Manager: Luis Pimenta

9'▲N. Jensen Wassberg←▼E. Flataker

61'▲E. Blikstad←▼A. Nusa

61'▲I. Hjorteseth←▼A. Roaldsøy

61'▲O. Sivertsen←▼J. Eng

72'▲V. Engh←▼S. Strand-Kolbjørnsen

Norway U19 substitutes

11Wassberg5Blikstad13Hjorteseth20Sivertsen1Engh16Kvithyld17Romsaas15Riisnæs7Aas

Manager: N. Sabani

46'▲A. Osmani←▼S. Mladenovski

46'▲D. Elezi←▼A. Chilafi

46'▲N. Pavleski←▼A. Murati

61'▲Z. Nazifi←▼M. Gjorgievski

67'▲Mateo Sofijanoski←▼S. Zenku

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

16Osmani10Elezi2Pavleski20Nazifi8Sofijanoski13Serafimov7Tasov9Talevski12Angelov