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Norway U19 vs Netherlands U18 — Friendlies 2026

Norway U19
Norway U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Netherlands U18
Netherlands U18
11/17/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Norway U1943%
×Draw19%
Netherlands U1838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U19
2.50
Netherlands U18
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Norway U19
2.33
Netherlands U18
3.00

allows per match

Norway U19
1.67
Netherlands U18
2.67

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par
Netherlands U18+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Netherlands U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw
62%
Norway U19 or Netherlands U18
81%
Draw or Netherlands U18
57%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+
26%
Netherlands U18 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals
92%
Norway U19 2+ goals
71%
Norway U19 3+ goals
45%
Netherlands U18 1+ goals
90%
Netherlands U18 2+ goals
67%
Netherlands U18 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Netherlands U18 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Netherlands U18 away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 2.33 + Netherlands U18 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Netherlands U18 attack 3.00 + Norway U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norway U19 scores more
43%
level
19%
Netherlands U18 scores more
38%

Norway U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Norway U19 2–2 Netherlands U18

Norway U19 and Netherlands U18 drew 2-2 in Friendlies on November 17, 2025.