Norway U19 2–1 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Norway U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Montenegro U19

3/20/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Norway U1970%

×Draw18%

Montenegro U1912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.87

Norway U19

2.36

Montenegro U19

0.87

Norway U19 creates 171% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

3.26

creates per match

1.00

0.74

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Norway U19

3.26

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Norway U19

0.74

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

88%

Norway U19 or Montenegro U19

82%

Draw or Montenegro U19

30%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

47%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

90%

Norway U19 2+ goals

68%

Norway U19 3+ goals

41%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

58%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

22%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 3.26 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.36

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Norway U19 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Norway U19 scores more

70%

level

18%

Montenegro U19 scores more

12%

Norway U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff