Norway U19 5–4 Greece U19: Result & Stats

Norway U19

FT

5 – 4

HT: 5 – 0

Greece U19

N. Ødegård 44', 15'

H. Skogvold 36'

E. Flataker 18'

A. Roaldsøy 6'

A. Kalogeropoulos 90+5'

S. Tzimas 81', 51'

C. Stavropoulos 80'

7/4/2023

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Norway U1943%

×Draw20%

Greece U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchGreece U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

2.12

Norway U19

2.30

Greece U19

2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

1.93

creates per match

2.67

1.57

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Norway U19

1.93

Greece U19

2.67

allows per match

Norway U19

1.57

Greece U19

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

Greece U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Greece U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

63%

Norway U19 or Greece U19

80%

Draw or Greece U19

57%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

25%

Greece U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

90%

Norway U19 2+ goals

67%

Norway U19 3+ goals

40%

Greece U19 1+ goals

88%

Greece U19 2+ goals

62%

Greece U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Greece U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 1.93 + Greece U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.30

Greece U19 attack 2.67 + Norway U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norway U19 scores more

43%

level

20%

Greece U19 scores more

37%

Norway U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

N. Ødegård

Norway U19 · M

8.6

Match Events

6'

A. Roaldsøy↳ N. Hopland

15'

N. Ødegård↳ O. Sivertsen

18'

E. Flataker↳ H. Skogvold

36'

H. Skogvold↳ N. Ødegård

42'

43'

44'

46'

46'

A. Andresen← D. Bassi

46'

B. Thoresen← E. Flataker

46'

R. Holten← S. Haram

46'

S. Tzimas← G. Gitersos

46'

C. Stavropoulos← D. Kottas

49'

Christos Stavropoulos

51'

S. Tzimas↳ A. Golfinos

53'

Anastasios Symeonidis

61'

G. Kyriopoulos← A. Golfinos

61'

K. Goumas← Z. Tsikos

63'

H. Bruseth← A. Roaldsøy

75'

Konstantinos Goumas

80'

C. Stavropoulos

81'

S. Tzimas↳ G. Kyriopoulos

82'

E. Nikolaou← A. Symeonidis

90+5'

A. Kalogeropoulos↳ K. Goumas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwayGreece

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots16

3Corners10

11Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots16

7On Target8

3Off Target6

4Blocked2

13Inside Box12

1Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

395Total Passes355

305Accurate Passes273

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3