Norway U19 3–2 Georgia U19: Result & Stats

Norway U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Georgia U19

J. Reitan-Sunde 86'

K. Ekorness 39'

T. Nyhammer 23'

G. Gogsadze 76'

V. Salia 48'

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Norway U1976%

×Draw15%

Georgia U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchGeorgia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.91

Norway U19

2.77

Georgia U19

0.91

Norway U19 creates 204% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

3.26

creates per match

1.07

0.74

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Norway U19

3.26

Georgia U19

1.07

allows per match

Norway U19

0.74

Georgia U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Georgia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

90%

Norway U19 or Georgia U19

85%

Draw or Georgia U19

24%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

55%

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

94%

Norway U19 2+ goals

76%

Norway U19 3+ goals

51%

Georgia U19 1+ goals

60%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

23%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Georgia U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 3.26 + Georgia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.77

Georgia U19 attack 1.07 + Norway U19 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Norway U19 scores more

76%

level

15%

Georgia U19 scores more

10%

Norway U19 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

T. Nyhammer

35'

S. Olderheim← J. El Abdellaoui

39'

K. Ekorness

42'

V. Salia

46'

A. Tkeshelashvili← A. Amisulashvili

46'

G. Gvasalia← L. Tsulaia

48'

61'

62'

67'

73'

G. Nyheim← T. Nyhammer

75'

L. Bubuteishvili← S. Geguchadze

75'

T. Odikadze← V. Salia

76'

G. Gogsadze

78'

G. Gogsadze

80'

T. Dalakishvili← G. Gogsadze

86'

J. Reitan-Sunde

89'

A. Rønning← J. Gonstad

89'

M. Øren← J. Reitan-Sunde

90+2'

A. Ronning

90+5'

M. Sauri

Norway

Georgia

1

Sauri

5

Nikolaish

3

Meparishv

17

▼

Amisulash

2

⚽

▼

Gogsadze

4

Kharebash

13

▼

Tsulaia

7

▼

Geguchadz

8

Berelidze

10

Samushia

9

⚽

▼

Salia

1

Saetren

5

Kjelsen

20

⚽

▼

Reitan-Su

3

Børset

15

Hope

13

⚽

Ekorness

6

Heredia-R

18

Granaas

8

⚽

▼

Nyhammer

7

▼

Gonstad

9

▼

Abdellaou

Manager: E. Sel

35'▲S. Olderheim←▼J. El Abdellaoui

73'▲G. Nyheim←▼T. Nyhammer

89'▲A. Rønning←▼J. Gonstad

89'▲M. Øren←▼J. Reitan-Sunde

Norway U19 substitutes

19Olderheim10Nyheim11Rønning4Øren2Høyland12Stær-Jensen17Spiten-Nysæter14Sjøvold16Wendt

Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

46'▲A. Tkeshelashvili←▼A. Amisulashvili

46'▲G. Gvasalia←▼L. Tsulaia

75'▲L. Bubuteishvili←▼S. Geguchadze

75'▲T. Odikadze←▼V. Salia

80'▲T. Dalakishvili←▼G. Gogsadze

Georgia U19 substitutes

16Tkeshelashvili20Gvasalia11Bubuteishvili14Odikadze15Dalakishvili19Mashava18Turkia12Khelashvili6Surguladze

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Norway U19 3–2 Georgia U19

Norway U19 beat Georgia U19 3-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2024.

Goals: T. Nyhammer (23'), K. Ekorness (39'), V. Salia (48'), G. Gogsadze (76'), J. Reitan-Sunde (86').

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.

Norway U19 vs Georgia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Norway U19 3–2 Georgia U19