Norway U19 3–0 England U19: Result & Stats

Norway U19

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

England U19

J. Hauge 89'

E. Markovic 86'

E. Botheim 76'

7/26/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · World Cup Play-offOmaSP Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Norway U1950%

×Draw22%

England U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norway U19Expected goals in this matchEngland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.48

Norway U19

2.00

England U19

1.48

Norway U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.78

1.18

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Norway U19

2.00

England U19

1.78

allows per match

Norway U19

1.18

England U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par

England U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

England U19 →

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw

71%

Norway U19 or England U19

78%

Draw or England U19

50%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+

28%

England U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals

86%

Norway U19 2+ goals

59%

Norway U19 3+ goals

32%

England U19 1+ goals

77%

England U19 2+ goals

43%

England U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

63%

England U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

England U19 away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 2.00 + England U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

England U19 attack 1.78 + Norway U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Norway U19 scores more

50%

level

22%

England U19 scores more

29%

Norway U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Markovic← S. Nordli

55'

C. Borchgrevink← John Kitolano

76'

E. Botheim

80'

N. Ennis← G. Hirst

82'

N. Kirby← D. Sterling

83'

J. Hauge← O. Brynhildsen

86'

E. Markovic

89'

J. Hauge

Norway

England

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Johansen

46'▲E. Markovic←▼S. Nordli

55'▲C. Borchgrevink←▼John Kitolano

83'▲J. Hauge←▼O. Brynhildsen

Norway U19 substitutes

10Markovic2Borchgrevink11Hauge6Myhre4Salte19Håland17Vinjor1Ødegaard8Christensen

Manager: P. Simpson

80'▲N. Ennis←▼G. Hirst

82'▲N. Kirby←▼D. Sterling

England U19 substitutes

16Ennis19Kirby18Watts11Morris8Tavernier13Cumming17Gallagher20Ferguson14Francis