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Norway U19 vs Denmark U18 — Friendlies 2026

Norway U19
Norway U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Denmark U18
Denmark U18
11/13/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Norway U1941%
×Draw23%
Denmark U1836%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norway U19
1.72
Denmark U18
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Norway U19
2.33
Denmark U18
1.50

allows per match

Norway U19
1.67
Denmark U18
1.10

finishing

Norway U19+0.00on par
Denmark U18+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway U19 ↓

Denmark U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Norway U19 or draw
64%
Norway U19 or Denmark U18
77%
Draw or Denmark U18
59%

Winning margin

Norway U19 wins by 2+
21%
Denmark U18 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Norway U19 1+ goals
82%
Norway U19 2+ goals
51%
Norway U19 3+ goals
25%
Denmark U18 1+ goals
79%
Denmark U18 2+ goals
47%
Denmark U18 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Norway U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Denmark U18 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Denmark U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway U19 attack 2.33 + Denmark U18 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Denmark U18 attack 1.50 + Norway U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Norway U19 scores more
41%
level
23%
Denmark U18 scores more
36%

Norway U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norway U19 vs Denmark U18

Denmark U18 beat Norway U19 2-1 in Friendlies on November 13, 2025.